India’s tiger project is at a fork in the road

This is the 5th cycle of tiger estimation since the once-in-four-years countrywide census was revamped with scientific rigour in 2006. And, in each cycle, the tiger population survey area has increased manifold, along with refinements in technique and methodology. We are now counting on a much larger landscape with more cameras on the ground as well as through foot surveys. For example in 2006, there were 28 tiger reserves (plus 10 proposed) compared to the 51 tiger reserves surveyed in 2022. In 2010, there were only 800 camera traps in 10,500 sq km in comparison to 26,838 cameras in 2018 and 32,588 cameras in 2022.

Still, not everyone is happy. Karnataka appears to be bristling with the substantial jump in numbers in Madhya Pradesh (MP). Five reserves from Karnataka are in the top 10, compared to only two from MP in the management effectiveness evaluation of tiger reserves. Goa doesn’t seem to want to acknowledge it has any tigers, though the National Tiger Conservation Authority (NTCA) says it has five, proposing Mhadei Wildlife Sanctuary to be notified as a tiger reserve. Odisha too is not happy with NTCA’s report and now wants to conduct its own survey and prove it has better numbers. Similipal tiger reserve, its crown jewel and one of the original nine tiger reserves from April 1973, has seen better days. Within a span of a month (in May-June), two frontline staff were shot dead by poachers inside the reserve. Numbers from neighbouring Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand are also dipping.

The northeastern border states that fall within the Indo-Burma biodiversity hotspot arc— one of the 25 global biodiversity hotspots — continue their poor show despite being one of the prime habitats for the big cat. While Arunachal Pradesh showed a decline in numbers, Mizoram and Nagaland drew a blank. Hope of tiger recovery in this landscape is fading, especially with the new tweaks in the forest conservation law that Parliament approved this week. The development that the new exemptions might bring will come at the price of losing chunks of the finest forests in the subcontinent. Hundreds of submissions and advice from civil society groups, scientists, academics, and former bureaucrats have been ignored in this regard.

As the country gears up for rapid development, more and more forest land will be sacrificed, accelerating the shrinkage of habitat for tigers and wildlife. What’s odd is that the same environment ministry that is allegedly diluting forest laws is also raising concerns about habitat loss, as outlined in the ministry’s latest management effectiveness evaluation of tiger reserves in India. “With the increasing urban sprawl, protected areas (PA), such as tiger reserves, national parks and wildlife sanctuaries, in India are becoming isolated islands amidst a pool of hostile land practices. PA faces many challenges to their integrity and connectivity which unless addressed can undermine the very objective for which they were established,” it read. It seems that the day is not far when these so-called islands will turn into a Jurassic Park of sorts for eco-tourism.

Not just habitat loss, poaching remains one of the biggest threats to tigers. 30% of India’s tiger population — more than 1,000 animals — are outside the protection of reserves, surviving in human-dominated forest landscapes, with some even breeding in agricultural fields. In June, the Wildlife Crime Control Bureau (WCCB) issued a red alert around various tiger reserves, especially areas in and around Satpura, Tadoba, Pench, Corbett, Amangarh, Pilibhit, Valmiki, Rajaji as well as tiger-bearing areas such as Balaghat, Gadchiroli, and Chandrapur, asking for intensifying patrolling and other necessary mitigation measures. These risks will only amplify with population pressures.

How many wild tigers can the world’s most populous nation sustain? Multiple ecological factors are at play. Apart from the habitat, it includes the density of prey, availability of water and protection measures. Further, new management practices are being tested; we are constantly tinkering with the wild, from compassionately creating water holes and translocating tigers (as well as prey) to areas where the population is low. Two of the country’s foremost tiger experts appear to be at loggerheads on what a sustainable tiger number could be. While former NTCA member secretary, Rajesh Gopal, says India is nearing the carrying capacity of around 4,000 tigers, Ullas Karanth aspires for a minimum 10,000 tigers.

The English-speaking urban elite are always gung-ho about rising numbers. We want more tigers because that’s the paradigm for growth and success.

However, no one is asking economically marginalised people, and a significant portion of the country’s population who live alongside the big cats, if they want to wake up to more and more tigers in their backyard — living in constant fear of losing livestock or getting injured in accidental encounters. Imagine meeting a tiger snoozing on your front porch, or driveway, as you step out for a morning walk. Tiger reserves that have done well are also grappling with a negative human-tiger interface as more big cats spill out to neighbouring areas to establish territories, find food, and mate. We are at an interesting junction. While we have bucked the trend and forestalled the ongoing mass extinction of species, the future of tigers depends on how much-interlinked tiger forests we can safeguard from our own greed.

Ananda Banerjee is an author, artist and wildlife conservationist. The views expressed are personal